An unsustainable boom

Nov. 1, 2002
<b>The longer the current housing boom continues, the more worried John Stewart becomes about medium-term prospects for the housing market and housebuilders</b><br><b>Everyone seems to agree the current housing boom is unsustainable. Even Anatole Kaletsky of The Times, among the most bullish of economic commentators, uses the word &amp;“unsustainable&amp;” to describe the rate of house price inflation.</b><br><b>An important distinction, as Kaletsky perceptively observed, is between the rate of house price inflation and the absolute level of house prices. It is the latter which will ultimately bring house price inflation under control.</b><br><b>price boom unsustainable</b><br>It does not require training in economics to appreciate that the housing market cannot continue indefinitely with house price inflation in excess of 20% alongside earnings growth of less then 4% and inflation below 2%.<p></p><p>At present average male earnings in Great Britain are around &amp;£26,000, while the average house price in England &amp;&amp; Wales in the second quarter was just over &amp;£133,000 according to HM Land Registry, a price/earnings multiple of five. Another two years at current growth rates would raise average male earnings to just over &amp;£28,000, while the average house price would hit &amp;£200,000, a multiple of seven.</p><p>To date forecasters have been badly wrong-footed by the strength …

Continue reading

To continue reading this article please login or register.

Login

Forgot your password?

Register for free

Quick and free registration

Register